Prediction markets, track records and reputations in Software

“My Experience Running Gleangen: Google’s Internal Prediction Market”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTCnxUBxw-E

https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/solutions-how-tos/design-patterns-in-googles-prediction-market-on-google-cloud

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023 https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/2023-prediction-contest https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/

https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work/

https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/prediction-markets

https://www.manifest.is/

https://manifold.markets/

Example: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-get-hallucination-rates-dow#

Are you calibrated? https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/icg4cze/users/sign_in?return_to=%2Fprograms%2Ficg4cze%2Fembed%2FDVI1YCs9BKh9QuZiUnw0i6gApWOvyddrUl80cPGZ4EI%2Fcomplete

Google use of internal prediction market: https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2019/11/24/googles-use-of-an-internal-prediction-market/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster