Difference between revisions of "Prediction markets, track records and reputations in Software"
(Vídeo on running Gleanglen, Google’s internal prediction market) |
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| + | “My Experience Running Gleangen: Google’s Internal Prediction Market”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTCnxUBxw-E | ||
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| + | https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/solutions-how-tos/design-patterns-in-googles-prediction-market-on-google-cloud | ||
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https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq | https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq | ||
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| + | https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023 https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/2023-prediction-contest https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/ | ||
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work/ | https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work/ | ||
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https://manifold.markets/ | https://manifold.markets/ | ||
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| + | Example: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-get-hallucination-rates-dow# | ||
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| + | Are you calibrated? https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/icg4cze/users/sign_in?return_to=%2Fprograms%2Ficg4cze%2Fembed%2FDVI1YCs9BKh9QuZiUnw0i6gApWOvyddrUl80cPGZ4EI%2Fcomplete | ||
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| + | Google use of internal prediction market: https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2019/11/24/googles-use-of-an-internal-prediction-market/ | ||
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| + | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster | ||
Latest revision as of 14:48, 25 May 2024
“My Experience Running Gleangen: Google’s Internal Prediction Market”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTCnxUBxw-E
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023 https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/2023-prediction-contest https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work/
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/prediction-markets
Example: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-get-hallucination-rates-dow#
Are you calibrated? https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/icg4cze/users/sign_in?return_to=%2Fprograms%2Ficg4cze%2Fembed%2FDVI1YCs9BKh9QuZiUnw0i6gApWOvyddrUl80cPGZ4EI%2Fcomplete
Google use of internal prediction market: https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2019/11/24/googles-use-of-an-internal-prediction-market/
